Trump branded, browbeat and prevailed. But his big bill may come at a political cost

WashingtonIt was Barack Obama. will have the. Joe Biden had the.

In the moment, they were all praised, and in subsequent campaigns, they were all prime political targets. In the case of Trump, Democrats claim that other provisions of the multitrillion-dollar measure will deprive low-income Americans of their health insurance and reverse ten or more years of energy policy.

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Trump used browbeating and persuasion to get people to support his flagship legislation even if some of its provisions were unpopular.

He played by the script that had defined his pre-political business life. After focusing on branding the law as the One Big, Beautiful Bill, he vehemently pushed it through Congress using just Republican votes.

However, it will soon be put to the test in the 2026 midterm elections, when a recurring theme is that the Republican president prefers tax breaks for the wealthy above health care for the poor.

Republicans, including Trump, contend that individuals who merit coverage will continue to receive it. At a time of uncertainty and trade unrest, the GOP’s claim that the plan will boost the economy will be put to the test.

With policies that would lower taxes for those who receive overtime compensation and tips—two types of workers who make up a small portion of the workforce—Trump has attempted to refute the idea that he is favoring the wealthy.

Additionally, Trump could claim that millions of individuals would avoid a tax rise by extending the tax cuts from his first term that were scheduled to expire if Congress did nothing. Republicans drastically reduced Medicaid in order to implement that and other costly policies, which ultimately contradicted Trump’s assurance that those on government entitlement programs would not be impacted.

Most importantly, he is responding to the call of the forgotten. Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which writes taxes, stated that this is why his top priorities were tax relief for seniors, no tax on gratuities, and no tax on overtime. That, in my opinion, will have the most effect.

It’s difficult to get the benefits.

Presidents’ signature legislative achievements have either been dismantled by their successors or have significantly harmed their party’s political standing in later elections.

The idea that the people would reward the Democrat for his legislative achievements was a key argument for Biden’s reelection. That didn’t work out since he was unable to raise his poll numbers due to persistent inflation and worries about his age.

Since becoming office in January, Trump has taken steps to eliminate tax incentives included in Biden’s historic health care and climate plan that were intended to support sustainable energy projects.

A political carnage ensued in the fall 2010 midterm elections as a result of Obama’s health reform, which the Democrat signed into law in March. When Republicans attempted to repeal it in 2017, its popularity just became stronger.

Trump’s 2017 first-term tax cuts may have given him a political boost, but it didn’t help him in the 2020 election when he lost to Biden or in the 2018 midterms when Democrats took back control of the House.

Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the nonpartisan University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said, “I don’t think there’s much, if any, evidence from recent or even not-so-recent history of the president’s party passing a big one-party bill and getting rewarded for it.”

Setbacks on social networks

Democrats are hoping to turn their policy setbacks into political victories.

Trump promised to love and preserve Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid during a January visit to the Oval Office.

Trump declared, “We’re not going to do anything with that but we’ll do something if we can find some abuse or waste.” However, the populace won’t be impacted. It will only get better and more efficient.

That pledge is far different from what Trump and the Republican Party finally decided to do, cutting back on food assistance for the poor in addition to Medicaid in order to make their comprehensive package function. According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, which the GOP has rejected, it would force an additional 11.8 million Americans to lose their insurance by 2034.

During Trump’s first term, Democrats in Congress stopped negative things from happening. We worked together to provide COVID relief, and they did not repeal the Affordable Care Act. Sen. Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii, stated that this time is different. People will die, hospitals will close, electricity prices will rise, and food shortages will occur.

A few disgruntled Republicans

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, has stated time and time again that the proposal will result in significant coverage losses in his state and others, making them susceptible to political attacks like to those Democrats had during the implementation of Obamacare. After refusing to push the bill forward and weathering Trump’s wrath, Tillis declared he would not seek reelection, his warnings ignored.

According to Tillis, if there is a political component to this, it is the remarkable influence you will have in blue states with red districts, such as California. “In states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey, the story will be overwhelmingly unfavorable.

Even Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican from Alaska, who ultimately cast the deciding vote in the Senate to adopt the bill, stated that it required more work and asked the House to make revisions. There, lawmakers didn’t.

According to early polls, Trump’s bill is extremely unpopular with both independents and a sizable portion of Republicans. According to White House officials, that is not reflected in their own studies.

Republicans are the only ones enjoying the win thus far. The president seems to approve of that.

He claimed that Democrats only opposed the law because they detested Trump in a speech given in Iowa following its passage. He claimed that since I too despise them, that didn’t concern him.

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This report was written by Joey Cappelletti of the Associated Press.

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