Playoff implications at stake when Packers visit Dolphins on Christmas Day

Carmen Vitali NFC North Reporter Overview: It’s a fight for these teams’ playoff lives, with one still much more likely than the other. The Dolphins are in if they win out. Full stop. They might not even need to, at that. The Packers, even if they do win out, will still need help from other teams in their conference (and in their division) if they’re going to do the improbable.Miami did just relinquish the sixth seed and currently sits as the seventh thanks to a Chargers’ win last weekend. Miami and Los Angeles have the same 8-6 record but the Chargers own the head-to-head tiebreaker, giving them the edge. And while the Dolphins do have some wiggle room, given that they would still be in the postseason even with a loss to Green Bay, seeding is going to be important. As of right now, as the seventh seed, they would play the second seed in the wild-card round, which is currently the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not a team anyone wants to see first thing in the postseason. Climbing up the ranks is only possible if Miami takes care of business the rest of the way.Green Bay is heading down to Miami with a 9% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times simulator. If they win, that number goes up to 19%. If they lose, it’s back down to 1%. The Packers need this win desperately.Aaron Rodgers is optimistic about Packers playoffs odds
Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Kevin Wildes discuss the Packers win over the Rams and react to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers showing optimism about making the NFL playoffs.
They are riding a two-game win streak, albeit both against struggling teams. The Green Bay defense put a hurting on a shell of a Rams offense on Monday night with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and the 67th combination of offensive linemen. Ok, that was an exaggeration, but there’s been no continuity in that unit all season and on Monday, Mayfield was sacked five times. It was more of what we had expected to see out of a Green Bay defense that includes multiple first-round picks within its front seven. On top of that, the Packers now rank second in passing defense, allowing just 185.1 yards per game through the air.They’ll need to fire on those same cylinders against a Miami offense that has cooled a bit over the last few weeks. It’s resulted in a three-game losing streak, though they’ve all come at the hands of good teams (49ers, Chargers, Bills). That being said, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in passer rating with 107.8 this season. This is the get-right game that could help them get off on the right foot heading into the playoffs. Conversely, the Packers are 1-5 against teams with winning records this season, while the Dolphins are 5-1 in home games.Matchup to watch: Preston Smith vs. Miami tacklesDolphins left tackle Terron Armstead was among those who didn’t practice on Wednesday but he’s been playing through multiple injuries the past couple of weeks. Given that perceived vulnerability, Green Bay could try to capitalize. Smith had two of the Packers’ five sacks on Monday night and he’s had at least a half sack and a tackle for loss in three of his last four games. In his only career game against Miami while with Washington, Smith had a sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery. He, and the rest of the Packers’ defensive front, is seemingly figuring out how to operate without Rashan Gary finally and getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks here in the last quarter of the season. Getting to Tagovailoa would be the easiest way to slow down a Miami offense that has all the potential for explosive plays and production thanks to players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.Key stats:Aaron Jones (937 rushing yards this season) needs 63 rushing yards to become the fourth player in Packers franchise history to record three seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards (would join John Brockington, Jim Taylor, and Ahman Green).Tyreek Hill ranks second in the NFL in receptions (109) and receiving yards (1,529) and needs four more receptions to set a new Dolphins single-season franchise record (current record is 112 receptions by Jarvis Landry in 2017).Prediction: The Dolphins have been great at home and are desperate for a win to boost morale, momentum, whatever you want to call it heading into the postseason, and I think Tagovailoa gets himself back on track against a defense that has struggled against good teams.That’s not to say the Packers won’t score some points, though. They’ve started to figure out a rhythm on offense, while still not entirely having an identity. They have both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs healthy and when coupled with Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, quarterback Aaron Rodgers believes that group can take them into the postseason this year given their varying skill sets. Running back AJ Dillon, who left the Rams game early being evaluated for a concussion, has cleared the protocol already so both him and Aaron Jones will be available, too. At the very least, the Packers are getting healthy at a good time, but will it end up mattering? The Dolphins say no.Dolphins 29, Packers 27Top stories from FOX Sports:Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV. Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

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