Glasgow, MT – Northeast Montana may see its first measurable snowfall of the season as a strong cold front moves through the region Monday night into Tuesday, bringing increasing chances for rain shifting to snow and possible early-season travel impacts.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Glasgow reports that probabilities for snow accumulation are rising as the system approaches, with several communities seeing a notable chance of reaching at least 1 inch of snow.
Increasing Chance of First Significant Snowfall
Weather models indicate that a band of moisture paired with colder air will move into the region late Monday, creating favorable conditions for accumulating snow—something much of northeast Montana has not yet experienced this fall.
Forecast probabilities show the highest chances for 1 inch or more of accumulation around:
- Zortman – 34%
- Circle – 30%
- Opheim – 28%
- Plentywood – 27%
- Sidney – 25%
- Jordan – 25%
- Malta – 24%
- Scobey – 23%
- Culbertson – 21%
Lower—but still notable—chances between 10–20% appear near Glasgow, Wolf Point, Whitewater, Glendive, and Terry, according to early forecasts sourced from the National Weather Service.
What the National Weather Service is Saying
Forecasters emphasize that much of the region has yet to record even half an inch of snow this fall, making the incoming system particularly noteworthy.
In an early Monday briefing, the NWS stated:
“Most of northeast Montana has not yet picked up a half-inch of snow this fall, making this system potentially the first measurable snowfall event of the season.”
Along with snow chances, the Weather Service highlights a 40–70% probability of receiving 0.01 inches or more of liquid-equivalent precipitation—meaning all water that would be produced if snow were melted.
This moisture is expected to stretch across large portions of Phillips, Valley, Daniels, McCone, and Richland counties, with the greatest concentrations from Whitewater to Malta and Zortman.
Timeline of Expected Weather
Rain is projected to arrive by Monday afternoon as the front begins pushing into the state. As evening temperatures fall, the rain will gradually transition to snow across much of northeast Montana.
The strongest period for snow looks to occur late Monday night through early Tuesday morning, when temperatures will be cold enough to support accumulation on grassy areas and elevated surfaces.
Road surfaces, still relatively warm from earlier fall conditions, may initially resist accumulation. However, the NWS warns that drivers should still prepare for potential slick spots during the Tuesday morning commute, especially on bridges and higher elevations.
Key Factors to Watch
Several elements will determine how much snow actually sticks:
- Temperature drop behind the cold front
- Moisture availability during the overnight period
- Ground temperature, which may limit accumulation
- Intensity of snowfall during peak hours
Even if totals remain on the lighter side, the shift from fall rain to early-season snow signals a transition toward colder, more winter-like conditions for the region.
Safety and Travel Tips
Early-season snowfall often catches drivers off-guard, especially when the first measurable event arrives suddenly. Residents across northeast Montana are encouraged to keep the following in mind:
- Reduce speed on potentially slick roads early Tuesday
- Allow for extra travel time
- Check local forecasts and Montana road condition updates
- Prepare vehicles with winter safety kits as the season shifts
Light snow may also reduce visibility during periods of heavier showers, making caution essential.
Conclusion
As northeast Montana prepares for what could be the first measurable inch of snow of the season, residents should monitor updates from the National Weather Service and stay alert for changing conditions Monday night into Tuesday. While accumulations are expected to remain light, early-season slick roads and reduced visibility are possible.
Have you experienced Montana’s first snowfall this year? Share your experiences in the comments below.
