Ozarks Region – A stationary weather front remains stretched across the Ozarks, setting the stage for increasing cloud cover, spotty light rain, and gradual temperature changes heading into the weekend. While some areas may see brief rain on Friday, most locations will remain dry, with more noticeable changes coming from cooler air and cloudier skies.
Stationary Front Divides the Region
A stalled frontal boundary is currently positioned roughly along Highway 32, separating cooler air to the north from milder conditions farther south. Forecast models indicate this boundary may slowly sag southward overnight, allowing cloud cover to expand across much of the Ozarks.
With the front nearby, light fog is possible late tonight, especially in areas north of the boundary where moisture becomes trapped under the cloud layer. Visibility issues are expected to remain localized and brief.
Overnight Temperatures Vary by Location
Temperature differences across the region will be noticeable overnight due to the frontal placement.
Northern Ozarks communities can expect overnight lows in the low 30s, while southern portions of the region, including areas of southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, will stay milder with lows in the mid 40s. These readings are seasonable for late winter but will feel cooler where cloud cover thickens.
Rain Chances Remain Limited on Friday
Light rain is possible by Friday morning, but current conditions suggest precipitation will be scattered and minimal. Radar returns remain sparse, and dew points over the southern Plains are still relatively dry, limiting the ability for widespread rainfall to develop.
Any rain that does occur on Friday is expected to be:
- Light in intensity
- Short-lived
- Mostly confined to far southern Missouri and Arkansas
Rainfall totals are forecast to stay at or below one-tenth of an inch, with many locations likely receiving little to no measurable rain.
Friday Temperatures Stay Mild Under Cloud Cover
Despite increased clouds, temperatures on Friday will remain relatively steady. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the low to mid 50s, which is close to seasonal norms for this time of year.
Cloud cover is expected to linger into Saturday afternoon, preventing significant warming during the daytime hours and contributing to cooler mornings.
Cooler Air Arrives Saturday
A light north wind will develop Saturday, allowing cooler air to gradually filter into the Ozarks. Morning temperatures are forecast to begin just above freezing, particularly in northern areas.
Afternoon highs on Saturday may struggle to warm significantly, with most locations reaching only the mid to upper 40s. The combination of cloud cover and northerly airflow will keep conditions noticeably cooler compared to Friday.
Clear and Cold Sunday Morning
By Sunday morning, skies are expected to clear as the frontal system moves away. This clearing will allow temperatures to drop more efficiently overnight.
Early Sunday readings could fall into the upper 20s, marking the coldest temperatures of the upcoming forecast period. Sensitive plants and outdoor items may need protection in colder-prone areas.
Warmer Air Returns Sunday Afternoon
Conditions will improve quickly on Sunday as south winds strengthen during the afternoon. This shift in wind direction will bring warmer air back into the region.
High temperatures Sunday afternoon are expected to rebound into the low to mid 50s, providing a noticeable improvement from Saturday’s cooler conditions.
Significant Warming Early Next Week
A strong warming trend is forecast for Monday and Tuesday, thanks to plentiful sunshine and sustained southerly winds. High temperatures are projected to climb into the mid 60s, which is nearly 20 degrees above average for the Ozarks.
Dry conditions are expected to persist through midweek, making for favorable travel and outdoor conditions.
Next Storm System Timing
Looking ahead, the next major storm system that could impact the Ozarks is expected around next Thursday. Until then, temperatures should remain mild, generally holding in the 60s during the daytime.
There is also a chance for additional rain by the following weekend, though confidence in timing and coverage remains low at this point.
What to Watch
Residents should keep an eye on:
- Patchy fog late tonight into early Friday
- Light rain potential mainly south of the region Friday
- Near-freezing temperatures Saturday morning
- A hard cool-down Sunday morning before warming resumes
Final Outlook
Overall, the Ozarks will see a relatively quiet stretch of weather with limited rain chances, brief cooling this weekend, and a strong warm-up early next week. While no significant storms are expected in the short term, conditions may turn more active again late next week.
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