USATSI
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out. It’s too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made. We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world. All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook: WEATHER: Forecast calls for rain with “potential for heavy rainfall” and winds between 10 to 20 miles per hour. Heavy winds (figure 15 miles per hour or more) will impact the kicking game and passes beyond 20 Air Yards. Heavy rain creates a slicker playing surface and a slippery ball, but also impacts visibility. Both heavy winds and rain will impact how teams call their plays. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Thursday. LAST WEEK: Turned eight targets into an outrageous 6-109-3 stat line. Jones ran excellent routes and exploded after the catch a number of times, making him a problem for cornerbacks to tackle. He even beat Trevon Diggs on a route that set up the game-tying field goal in regulation. Honestly, he played like a stud No. 1 receiver. Not dropping any passes helped.PAST FIVE GAMES: Has seen at least eight targets four times, has caught at least six balls four times, has scored at least 14 PPR points four times and has been lining up out wide consistently (has seen three targets from the slot). It’s worth noting Jones has averaged below 10.0 yards per catch three times and has been targeted beyond 16 Air Yards 10 times on the 51 targets he’s seen in this span.JETS VS OUTSIDE WRs: Have done very well against receivers lined up out wide all season, ranking top-five in 20-plus-yard completions allowed (eight), catch rate allowed (54.1%) and YAC/reception allowed (2.75), plus they’re top-10 in yards per catch allowed (12.0) and missed tackles allowed (seven), all while seeing the farthest ADOT against (14.76). They’re equally dominant specifically versus perimeter receivers on targets inside of 15 Air Yards.Possible Bust (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook: WEATHER: Forecast calls for rain with “potential for heavy rainfall” and winds between 10 to 20 miles per hour. Heavy winds (figure 15 miles per hour or more) will impact the kicking game and passes beyond 20 Air Yards. Heavy rain creates a slicker playing surface and a slippery ball, but also impacts visibility. Both heavy winds and rain will impact how teams call their plays. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Thursday. PAST THREE WEEKS: Kirk has been overshadowed by Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Kirk has finished third in target share and has caught only one more pass than Jones (seven fewer than Engram!) and has no touchdowns. Specifically on throws inside of 15 Air Yards, Engram’s target share has been 32.9%, Jones’ has been 20.3% and Kirk’s has been 15.2%! KIRK: Fortunately has still notched at least 15 PPR points in two of the three games. JETS VS SLOT WRs: Have struggled here, particularly on throws inside of 15 Air Yards. On the season they rank about league average in catch rate allowed (77.8%) but are bottom-10 in yards per catch (9.59) and YAC/reception (5.25). They rank similarly in their past four games, too. Offenses are finding the matchups easier away from their outside cornerbacks. Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook: WEATHER: Forecast calls for rain with “potential for heavy rainfall” and winds between 10 to 20 miles per hour. Heavy winds (figure 15 miles per hour or more) will impact the kicking game and passes beyond 20 Air Yards. Heavy rain creates a slicker playing surface and a slippery ball, but also impacts visibility. Both heavy winds and rain will impact how teams call their plays. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Thursday. LAST WEEK: Knight was completely flummoxed on the ground against Detroit, averaging lower than 2.0 yards per catch and not even seeing one target from Wilson. He saw eight defenders in the box on a whopping 38.5% of his runs! JETS RBs: Collectively are much more efficient without Zach Wilson on the field (4.9 yards per rush, 36.2% of runs gain five-plus yards) than with Wilson on the field (4.1 yards per rush, 30.9% of runs gain five-plus yards). JETS RBs: Wilson’s season-long 17.6% target rate to running backs ranks 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks. He didn’t target Knight once last week and only “targeted” Michael Carter on a pass because he chucked up a wounded duck when under pressure and Carter caught it. JAGUARS: Have allowed 4.2 yards per rush to running backs in their past four games with five rushing touchdowns, including at least one score in four straight. But dig deeper — their past four have been against the Ravens, Lions, Titans and Cowboys — strong running teams — and their rushing average allowed is pushed up by a 50-yard Derrick Henry run.
Sneaky Sleeper (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook: WEATHER: Winds in the neighborhood or 20-plus miles per hour are expected with gusts into the 30s and 40s. It will also be single-digit degrees, but there’s little chance of rain or snow. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Saturday. LAST WEEK: Singletary’s snaps ticked up to 60% after being below 50% in each of the two weeks prior. He had 16 touches including three catches and would have scored very late if not for Buffalo coaches telling him to slide short of the end zone. Weather and game script definitely played a part in Singletary’s usage. PAST FOUR: Has scored once in that span and has touched the ball at least 15 times only twice. BEARS: Statistically have been league average in run defense across the board since trading Roquan Smith, though their 4.6 yards per rush average is a notch worse than the median. They also rank sixth-worst in tackles missed (30) since the Smith trade. They also lost Smith’s replacement, Jack Sanborn, to injury last week. Veteran Joe Thomas, who has missed 24.1% of his tackle attempts this year according to Pro Football Focus, will take his place.BEARS: Have given up a rushing touchdown to a RB in all but four games this season. That’s kinda notable. EIGHT IN THE BOX: In six games since trading Smith, the Bears rank fifth-worst in yards per carry (4.4) and fourth-worst in yards before contact (1.76) allowed when loading up to stop the run. Singletary might see more of that kind of attention if the winds are bad in Chicago, but on the season he ranks 13th-best among qualifying running backs in yards per carry (4.1), and is top-15 in both yards before contact (1.2) and yards after contact (3.3) against the stack. Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook:WEATHER: Winds in the neighborhood or 20-plus miles per hour are expected with gusts into the 30s and 40s. It will also be single-digit degrees, but there’s little chance of rain or snow. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Saturday. DAVIS: Has had 11 or fewer PPR points in five straight games and less than 10 PPR points in four straight. PAST FIVE: Davis’ target share has begun fading with a rate below 16% in three of his past four. In the two of his past five where Davis did see a sparkling target share (over 20%), he caught a total of 7 of 14 targets and a fortuitious touchdown on a busted play. His route depth remains deeper than most outside receivers, which hasn’t consistently meshed with Josh Allen’s newfound affinity for shorter throws. BEARS: Stink against everything defensively, including versus outside receivers. No team gives up a higher receiving average to WRs who line up wide (15.4 yards per catch) and only one team gives up more than the 4.92 YAC/reception they have this year. But the Bears have allowed just five touchdowns to outside receivers in 2022, none in their past two.
Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook: WEATHER: Winds gusting over 25 miles per hour are expected along with a chance of some snow. Temperature will be in the teens. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Saturday. OLAVE: There’s no complaining about his target share — he’s been above 22% in all but one game since Week 2. He still has a consistenly high ADOT. PAST 7 GAMES: Explosive plays have gone missing. Olave’s caught half of the 16 targets thrown 15-plus Air Yards, but outside of a 53-yard strike against the Rams in Week 11, he’s tallied 135 yards on seven such grabs. Naturally he’s been much more efficient on shorter throws (23 of 30 targets caught), but only three catches went for more than 15 yards and none more than 21. BROWNS: Have been blasted for 14 touchdowns by wide receivers all year, which ranks in the bottom-10. The Browns are also bottom-10 in yards per catch allowed (13.2). Though their stats suggest they’ve improved lately against targets 15-plus Air Yards downfield (top-10 in catch rate and yards allowed), it’s worth noting they shined against the lowly Texans and Ravens (without Lamar Jackson) in the past three weeks. SAINTS: Have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game this season. Dalton has attempted 30 or fewer passes in seven straight. It’s not a high-volume passing game. Sit Him (Lineup Decisions)
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Dave’s Notebook:WEATHER: Winds gusting over 25 miles per hour are expected along with a chance of some snow. Temperature will be in the teens. Please be prepared to make lineup decisions based on the weather before kickoff on Saturday. LAST WEEK: Played 30% of his snaps from the slot and saw all but one of his targets from there. It’s the most he’s played in the slot all season, and the 4-58-0 is (sadly) his best game so far with Deshaun Watson. WITH WATSON: Cooper has a 45.5% catch rate. He’s seen three red-zone and four end-zone targets, catching a total of zero of them. He’s seen four targets travel 15-plus Air Yards, catching a total of two of them for 34 total yards. SAINTS: In their past seven they’ve given up 15-plus PPR to a wideout one time — to Jauan Jennings. Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have all been held under 15 PPR points in this span.
Analysis to come.
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Analysis to come.