The top teams in the Eastern Conference meet in a Christmas Day showdown on Sunday. The Boston Celtics welcome Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks to TD Garden in a rematch of the 2022 Eastern Conference Semifinals. Boston is currently the No. 1 team in the East with a 23-10 overall record that includes a 12-5 mark at home. Milwaukee is just a half-game back at 22-10 overall and 8-7 on the road.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 4.5-point home favorites for this 5 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 225.5 in the Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 28-12 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning almost $1,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Bucks and just locked in its Christmas Day NBA picks. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Bucks vs. Celtics:
- Bucks vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -4.5
- Bucks vs. Celtics over/under: 225.5 points
- Bucks vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -190, Bucks +158
- MIL: The Bucks are 5-8-2 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 10-7 against the spread in home games
- Bucks vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston’s offense is electric behind Jayson Tatum. He is averaging 30.5 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, and the Celtics are leading the NBA in offensive rating at 116.6. Boston also leads the league in free throw accuracy at 82.8%, and the Celtics are in the top ten in field goal percentage (47.6%), 3-point percentage (37.6%), turnover rate (13.7%), assists (26.3 per game) and fast break points (14.7 per game).
Milwaukee is last in the NBA in turnover creation (12.7 per game) and in the bottom three in steals (6.5 per game). On the other end, Boston leads the league in assist prevention (22.0 assists allowed per game), with top-eight marks in defensive rebound rate (73.4%), free throw attempts allowed (21.4), and points allowed per 100 possessions (110.6).
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks are loaded on defense. Milwaukee is giving up fewer than 1.09 points per possession this season, ranking in the top three of the NBA, and opponents shoot only 45.1% from the field against the Bucks. That includes a paltry 35.0% mark allowed on 3-point attempts, and Milwaukee is No. 2 in the league in giving up only 20.5 free throw attempts per game.
The Bucks do not allow opponents to generate second-chance opportunities on the strength of a 74.3% defensive rebound rate, and Milwaukee is No. 2 in the league in assists allowed (22.3 per game). With opponents also scoring fewer than 48 points in the paint per game against the Bucks, Milwaukee’s baseline is lofty on the defensive end.
How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 228 points. It has also generated an against-the-spread cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Celtics vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $1,400 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.