The Tennessee Titans are 7-7 and still lead the AFC South, holding a one-game margin ahead of the 6-8 Jacksonville Jaguars. But with starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely out for the remainder of the season, things are about to get interesting. Tannehill suffered an ankle injury last week against the Chargers, and it’s looking like rookie Malik Willis will start under center the rest of the way.Tennessee catches something of a break with a matchup against the division rival Texans this weekend, but the Titans then have to play host to the Cowboys before traveling to Jacksonville for what will likely be the AFC South Championship Game in Week 18. The Jags, meanwhile, play the Jets on Thursday Night Football, then travel to Houston to face the Texans before hosting the Titans in Week 18.TeamWeek 16Week 17Week 18TitansTexans (1-12-1)Cowboys (10-4)at Jaguars (6-8)Jaguarsat Jets (7-7)at Texans (1-12-1)Titans (7-7)SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh ran the numbers on what things will look like without Tannehill in the lineup, and he’s actually still got the Titans as a slight favorite to win the division and make the playoffs. However, their odds of winning each game, the division, the conference, and the championship all dropped pretty precipitously. TITANSWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFFCONFCHAMPw/ Tannehill8.550.0%58.3%59.3%2.9%1.0%w/o Tannehill8.348.8%51.6%52.4%1.6%0.5%Difference-0.2-1.2%-6.7%-6.9%-1.3%-0.5%Accordingly, Jacksonville’s odds of achieving each of those results have spiked. The Jags had a 41% chance to make the postseason with Tannehill healthy, according to SportsLine, but now are nearly a 50-50 bet to crash the field.
JAGUARSWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFFCONFCHAMPTannehill Healthy7.644.7%39.1%41.0%1.7%0.6%Tannehill Out7.745.3%47.9%49.7%2.3%0.8%Difference0.10.6%8.8%8.7%0.6%0.2%Things could obviously change dramatically based on the Jaguars’ result against the Jets and the Titans’ result against the Cowboys, but otherwise, these two teams have a common opponent in the Texans and then play each other in the final week of the regular season. Unless the Titans go 2-0 while the Jaguars go 1-1 or worse, that Week 18 game is likely to decide which of these two teams wins the AFC South and gets to host a playoff game.