Aberdeen, S.D. – South Dakota is heading toward a volatile late-week weather pattern that could bring snow squalls, near-blizzard conditions, powerful winds, and a sharp plunge in temperatures. Meteorologists warn that rapidly changing conditions could create dangerous travel, especially from Thursday night into Friday.
According to the National Weather Service, a blizzard is still possible in parts of the state — particularly across the Coteau des Prairies and areas of north-central South Dakota — if snow and wind align at peak intensity.
Blizzard Still Possible, But Snow Squalls Increasingly Likely
Forecasters say the overall setup is highly favorable for snow squalls, which can be just as dangerous as full blizzards despite producing lighter snow totals.
“With both the snow and wind in mind, it becomes fairly clear that anywhere snow is falling will see drastic reductions in visibility Thursday and Friday,” the National Weather Service stated. “A blizzard warning is undoubtedly on the table for this event still, but the setup also appears quite favorable for a snow squall event.”
Officials say if snowfall becomes widespread, blizzard or ground-blizzard criteria could be met. If snow remains more localized, individual snow squall warnings are more likely.
Unseasonable Warmth Before Sudden Arctic Turn
The immediate concern on January 13 is unusually mild weather ahead of the storm system. Temperatures on January 15 are expected to run nearly 20 degrees above normal, with daytime highs reaching the 40s to near 50°F and overnight lows staying in the 30s.
That warmth will be short-lived. Much colder air surges into the region late in the week, pushing temperatures below seasonal averages by Thursday night and Friday, setting the stage for rapidly changing precipitation and road conditions.
Rain First, Then Snow Probabilities Increase
Light rain is possible across central South Dakota early in the week, with 30% to 60% chances Tuesday. Snow probabilities climb sharply late Thursday into Friday, with 45% to 75% chances statewide.
Snow accumulation is expected to remain light for many areas, but parts of the Coteau des Prairies could see up to 1 inch of snow, with a 60% to 80% chance of measurable accumulation from late Thursday into early Saturday.
Even light snowfall could become dangerous due to strong winds and rapidly falling temperatures.
What Are Snow Squalls and Why They’re Dangerous
Snow squalls are brief, intense bursts of snow that can drop visibility to near zero within minutes. Unlike long-lasting winter storms, squalls move quickly and often strike when roads initially appear clear.
Meteorologists say atmospheric models show:
- Strong upward motion
- Increasing surface instability
- Rapid pressure rises behind a cold front
This combination supports sudden, explosive snow development capable of producing whiteout conditions with little warning.
Strong Winds Could Create Whiteout Conditions
Wind will play a major role throughout the event. Northwest gusts of 35 to 45 mph are expected Tuesday before easing overnight. Winds intensify again late Thursday into Friday, when gusts could reach 40 to 55 mph.
Combined with falling or blowing snow, these winds could rapidly reduce visibility and create extremely hazardous travel, even where snow totals remain low.
Timeline for the Most Hazardous Conditions
Snow chances increase late Thursday as a strong cold front sweeps across South Dakota. The highest risk for intense snow squalls is expected Thursday night into early Friday, January 15–16.
Forecasters warn that brief but powerful bursts of snow may cause sudden whiteouts, especially as winds strengthen and temperatures plunge behind the front. Conditions gradually improve later Friday as the system exits east, though blowing snow may linger into the afternoon.
Blizzard Warning vs. Winter Storm Warning Explained
A winter storm watch means conditions are favorable for a significant winter event within 12 to 48 hours.
A winter storm warning indicates multiple hazards — such as heavy snow and blowing snow — are expected and may disrupt travel.
A blizzard warning is issued when winds reach 35 mph or higher, combined with falling or blowing snow that reduces visibility below one-quarter mile for at least three hours.
Forecasters say South Dakotans should closely monitor updates as small changes in storm track or timing could significantly impact conditions across the state.
