New York, NY – A developing coastal storm is expected to impact the region on Tuesday, prompting the New York First Alert Weather Team to issue a First Alert Weather Day. While early projections hinted at a more widespread snow event, updated models now show that most of the Tri-State Area will see primarily rain, with accumulating snow confined to the northwestern suburbs.
A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Sullivan, Ulster, Dutchess, Orange, and Sussex counties from late Monday night through Tuesday evening, where a plowable snowfall is likely.
Sunday Night and Monday: Calm Before the Shift
Rain moved out of the region on Sunday night, allowing skies to clear. Breezy conditions lingered with wind gusts near 25 mph, and temperatures fell into the 30s across nearly the entire viewing area.
Monday will offer bright conditions but remain chilly, with highs mainly in the low 40s. Meteorologists are calling it the calm before the approaching storm, as colder air settles in ahead of Tuesday’s coastal system.
Tuesday: First Alert Weather Day Takes Effect
The season’s first winter storm arrives Tuesday, but the new consensus among forecast models indicates the system will be mostly a rainmaker for a large portion of the region. Despite that shift, travel impacts are still expected.
Heavy rain is projected south and east of New York City, while northwestern New Jersey and the northwestern Hudson Valley should prepare for significant accumulating snow. Though it won’t be the strongest storm to hit the area this season, forecasters warn of messy commutes, potential flight delays, and pockets of hazardous driving conditions.
Once the storm moves out, a cold pattern will settle in through the end of the week, bringing a classic early-December chill.
Storm Timeline: What to Expect Throughout the Day
Early Morning: 6 a.m. to 10 a.m.
As the coastal storm tracks up the Mid-Atlantic coastline, precipitation will expand into the Tri-State region. Early rainfall and snow are expected to be light before intensifying later in the morning.
The rain/snow line sits north and west of New York City, meaning areas south and east of the city will see all rain. Communities northwest of I-78 will experience all snow, while locations sandwiched between those zones may see a mix of precipitation types.
Late Morning Through Afternoon: 10 a.m. to 5 p.m.
This will be the height of the storm. The rain/snow line pushes farther northwest, hovering around the I-78 corridor. Rainfall may become heavy at times across New York City, Long Island, and coastal New Jersey.
Snowfall intensifies northwest of I-78, with snow rates reaching 1–2 inches per hour in some areas. Winds increase as well, especially along the coast, where gusts of 25–35 mph are possible.
Evening: 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
The system begins to wind down from west to east. Some areas, including New York City, may end the event with a brief period of snow, though no accumulation is expected for the city and nearby suburbs.
Final snow totals could reach 4–8 inches in the northwestern Hudson Valley and parts of northwestern New Jersey. The lower Hudson Valley, the rest of northern New Jersey, and western Connecticut may see 1–3 inches of wet, heavy snow. Areas dominated by rain are expected to receive 1–2 inches of rainfall.
Snowfall and Rainfall at a Glance
Expected Snow Totals
- Northwestern Hudson Valley & Northwestern NJ: 4–8 inches
- Lower Hudson Valley, Northern NJ, Western CT: 1–3 inches
- NYC, Long Island, Coastal NJ: Little to none
Expected Rain Totals
- Most of NYC, Long Island, Coastal NJ: 1–2 inches of rain
Why This Storm Still Matters
Even though the storm has shifted toward more rain than snow, forecasters stress that Tuesday’s weather will still disrupt daily routines. Heavy downpours, reduced visibility, slick roads, and sharp changes in precipitation type can make travel challenging.
Authorities encourage drivers to check conditions before heading out, allow extra travel time, and prepare for potential delays on roads and at airports. For residents in snow-prone areas, the wet, heavy snow could be difficult to shovel and may increase the risk of minor power issues if trees or branches become weighed down.
What Happens After the Storm
Once the system clears out Tuesday night, the Tri-State Area enters a colder pattern. Temperatures drop, winds ease, and the region will feel more seasonally appropriate as December settles in.
Have You Experienced Weather Impacts in Your Area?
Share your observations, travel delays, or snowfall reports in the comments below.
