Buffalo, NY – Residents across western New York should prepare for a wet and windy start to the weekend that will quickly shift into a cold, snowy pattern by Sunday night, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The region’s first significant rain-to-snow transition of the season is expected to bring slick travel and a taste of early winter across the Buffalo metro area.
The Weather System Moving Into Western New York
Gray skies stretched across the Buffalo skyline Friday morning, signaling the arrival of a low-pressure system sweeping in from the Midwest. The blustery south breeze over Lake Erie is ushering in mild, moisture-rich air — but that warmth will be short-lived.
According to the NWS Buffalo Office, rain showers will expand by midday Friday, growing steadier and gustier through the afternoon and evening. Wind gusts could reach up to 30 mph, especially along Lake Erie, the waterfront, and the I-90 corridor.
“This system marks the beginning of a sharp pattern change toward colder air and early season snowfall,” forecasters said in a Friday briefing.
The Transition from Rain to Snow
By Saturday, showers will persist under breezy northwest winds as temperatures fall back into the low 40s. The colder air deepening across the Great Lakes will set the stage for a rain-to-snow transition late Saturday night into Sunday.
The first snowflakes of the season are likely to appear over higher elevations south of the city — particularly across the Boston Hills, Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge — before spreading northward.
“Sunday morning will mark our first widespread changeover from rain to snow across western New York,” NWS meteorologist Kevin Farrell said. “Roads could become slick, especially inland from the lakes.”
By Sunday evening, parts of the southern tier and eastern suburbs may see light accumulations, while lawns across the metro could turn white for the first time this season.
Cold Air and Lake-Effect Showers Early Next Week
The early winter chill will continue into Monday, with highs only in the 30s and occasional snow showers lingering through the day. The northwest flow over Lake Erie may trigger localized lake-effect bands, adding to minor accumulation in the southern and eastern snow belts.
By Veterans Day (Tuesday), skies are expected to dry out slightly, though brisk winds will make it feel like the 20s even during daylight hours. The combination of wind and cold could cause wind chills near freezing along the lakefront.
Meteorologists say this pattern marks the start of Buffalo’s seasonal transition — the time when lake-effect clouds build and early snow becomes a familiar sight.
Travel and Safety Advisory
While the weekend’s snow totals are not expected to be heavy, motorists should stay alert for slippery conditions, especially Sunday night into Monday morning when surface temperatures drop below freezing.
The NWS urges residents to check for updated forecasts and advisories, particularly if traveling across higher terrain or along Route 219 and I-86, where snowfall is often enhanced by lake-effect activity.
Drivers are also advised to inspect winter tires and pack emergency kits, as fluctuating temperatures and gusty winds can quickly create hazardous travel conditions.
Broader Weather Outlook for Mid-November
Looking ahead, forecasters say below-normal temperatures could persist into mid-November as cold air continues to spill into the Great Lakes region. Lake-effect snow may become more frequent, particularly as lake temperatures remain relatively warm — a setup known to fuel early winter squalls across western New York.
Buffalo’s early winter preview is arriving right on schedule, with meteorologists noting that the city’s first measurable snowfall typically occurs between November 5 and 10.
“Once those lake clouds form, it rarely takes long before winter takes control,” said Farrell.
Conclusion
Western New York is bracing for its first true taste of winter this weekend, as rain gives way to snow and temperatures tumble into the 30s. Residents are encouraged to prepare for the season ahead, keep travel plans flexible, and stay informed as the region transitions from a damp November pattern to a chillier, snow-filled week ahead.
How are you preparing for Buffalo’s first snow of the season? Share your thoughts and local weather updates in the comments below.
