The Air Force Falcons seek their second Armed Forces Bowl victory in program history Thursday when they face the Baylor Bears in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Armed Forces Bowl, which formed in 2003, prioritizes inviting bowl-eligible service academies. Air Force (9-3) is 1-4 in five appearances, with a 47-20 victory coming against Houston in 2009. In last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, Army posted a 24-22 win over Missouri. Baylor (6-6) is looking to finish with a winning season after dropping its last three regular-season contests.The Bears are 3.5-point betting favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 43 in the latest Baylor vs. Air Force odds. Before making any Air Force vs. Baylor picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Air Force and just locked in its picks and Armed Forces Bowl 2022 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Air Force vs. Baylor:
Baylor vs. Air Force spread: Baylor -3.5Baylor vs. Air Force over/under: 43 pointsBaylor vs. Air Force money line: Baylor -170, Air Force +143BU: The Bears are 4-1 against the spread in their past five bowl games.AFA: The Falcons are 20-8 ATS in their past 28 non conference games.Baylor vs. Air Force picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Air Force Falcons vs. Baylor Bears
Why Baylor can coverAlthough the Bears suffered their share of tough breaks and were inconsistent at times, on their best day they showed they could compete with the better teams in the country. Baylor’s resume includes road wins as an underdog at both Oklahoma and Texas Tech, while the Bears stumbled at BYU and West Virginia in games they controlled most of the way. Perhaps their most memorable performance came in a 29-28 home loss to TCU in which Baylor came up just short of spoiling the Horned Frogs’ undefeated regular season. Baylor led by at least seven points most of the way behind productive drives on offense and limiting TCU’s explosive offense. However, the Horned Frogs drove 45 yards in the final minute with no timeouts remaining and won on a walk-off 40-yard field goal. Sophomore quarterback Blake Shapen was hampered by injuries for some of the season but was mostly solid when active. He threw for 2,602 yards with 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.Why Air Force can coverOne major advantage that Air Force has in bowl preparation is that, unlike most other programs, the Falcons don’t have to deal with the chaotic blender of coaching changes, the transfer portal and NIL deals that have drastically changed the college sports landscape in the past few years. Players can transfer out of military academies but rarely do because of their military commitments, and Air Force currently has no players in the transfer portal for next season. Also, military academy athletes are forbidden by federal law to receive NIL deals because they are officially classified as federal government employees.
Moreover, service academies tend to have extremely low turnover with their coaches because it’s difficult to find and retain candidates who understand the challenges of the programs. Air Force coach Troy Calhoun entered this season as the sixth-longest tenured coach in the FBS. He has been with the Falcons since 2007 and two years ago received a contract extension through 2025 after Colorado pursued him for its opening. The deal included significant pay bumps for his assistant coaches and other staff, and Calhoun said at the time he hoped those deals would bring enhanced stability to the program. How to make Air Force vs. Baylor picksSportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 51 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.So who wins Baylor vs. Air Force? And which side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.